美联储理事明确“放鸽”：最早7月就可降息！

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggests that interest rates should be lowered soon, potentially as early as July, due to the diminishing threat of inflation and to address potential labor market slowdowns [1][2][3] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Waller believes the Federal Reserve should begin to lower rates to prevent a downturn in the labor market, advocating for proactive measures rather than reactive ones [2][3] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently voted to maintain the federal funds rate at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, with mixed opinions among members regarding future rate changes [2][3] - Market expectations indicate a low probability of a rate cut in July, with more likely action anticipated in September [3] Group 2: Economic Context - Waller argues that the impact of tariffs on inflation will be one-time and not persistent, suggesting that the current economic data does not warrant further delay in rate adjustments [3] - Other officials are cautious about lowering rates, as they are still assessing the long-term effects of tariffs on inflation, labor markets, and overall economic growth [3][4] Group 3: Internal Dynamics of the FOMC - Waller's comments reflect internal dynamics within the FOMC, indicating a lack of consensus for a July rate cut [4] - There is speculation about whether Waller is positioning himself to advocate for a rate cut at the upcoming meeting, as he presents one of the most theoretically grounded arguments for such action [4][5]