HAI TIAN(SH:603288) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-06-20 14:20Core Viewpoint - The recent dual listing of companies in A-shares and Hong Kong has provided opportunities for refinancing and injected vitality into the Hong Kong market, exemplified by the mixed performance of Haitian Flavor Industry's Hong Kong debut [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Population Structure Changes - The aging population in China, influenced by the baby boom of the 1960s, is expected to significantly alter consumption patterns, particularly affecting traditional consumer goods like soy sauce and alcohol [4][6]. - As the population ages, the consumption of many products, including soy sauce, is likely to decline, as older consumers tend to reduce their consumption of these items [7]. - Younger generations are increasingly opting for convenience, such as takeaway meals, which often utilize lower-cost brands, impacting traditional consumption patterns [8][10]. Group 2: Haitian Flavor Industry's Performance - In 2024, Haitian Flavor Industry reported a revenue of 26.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.53%, and a net profit of 6.344 billion yuan, up 12.75%, reversing a two-year decline in net profit [11]. - The company's gross margin reached 37.00%, an increase of 2.26 percentage points, while the net margin was 23.63%, up 0.65 percentage points, primarily due to lower raw material costs and optimized production [13]. - The company is shifting its focus from high growth to high-quality growth, reflecting a strategic change in response to market conditions [14]. Group 3: Structural Transformation - Haitian Flavor Industry is undergoing a structural transformation in response to changes in economic structure, with its soy sauce business peaking in 2021 and subsequently declining [16][18]. - The company is maintaining revenue growth through its oyster sauce and seasoning sauce businesses, while also attempting to penetrate new markets such as vinegar and cooking wine [18][20]. - Emerging categories, including compound sauces and cooking wine, generated 4.086 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 16.75%, with online sales growing significantly [21][22]. Group 4: Operational Risks - The company faces several operational risks, including fluctuations in raw material prices, intensified market competition, slow international expansion, and potential goodwill impairment [23][25]. - Raw materials like soybeans and sugar account for over 60% of costs, with future price increases posing a risk despite recent declines [25]. - Competition from emerging brands in the health-oriented market is increasing, with Haitian's market share in high-end soy sauce lagging behind competitors [25].