美债现在能配了吗？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the current environment for U.S. Treasury bonds (T-bonds) presents both opportunities and risks, particularly in light of recent interest rate changes and economic indicators [1][2][6] - The U.S. Treasury market has shown overall positive returns this year, with the U.S. Treasury Index rising by 2.52% and the investment-grade corporate bond index increasing by 2.71% as of June 12 [1] - Despite the overall positive performance, there has been significant volatility in T-bond yields, with the 10-year and 2-year T-bond yields fluctuating between 3.86% and 4.8% [1][2] Group 2 - The investment environment for T-bonds is influenced by multiple factors, including inflation risks, government debt concerns, and economic expectations, leading to increased volatility in yields [2][6] - Recent macroeconomic data indicates that while recession fears persist, key indicators such as employment and inflation remain stable, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% and May's CPI at 2.35%, below expectations [3][6] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may implement rate cuts in September and October, with the current federal funds rate maintained at 4.25%-4.5% [6] Group 3 - Investment strategies for T-bonds include considering dollar-denominated money market funds for their liquidity and relatively high yields, as well as dollar-denominated rate bonds, which have seen yields above 4% [6][7] - The credit spread for dollar-denominated credit bonds has been narrowing, and while yields remain attractive, caution is advised regarding lower-rated high-yield bonds [7]