白银补涨行情终结？

Group 1 - Silver futures and spot prices have significantly corrected after reaching new highs, with a decline of 4.7% in the last two trading days for Shanghai silver and a substantial drop in London silver spot prices [1] - The main reasons for the recent sharp correction in silver prices include a continuous decline in downstream demand, a rapid increase in inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and a slowdown in photovoltaic installation growth [1][2] - The financial attributes and industrial attributes dominate the pricing of silver, with current market conditions deviating significantly from historical patterns due to a decrease in geopolitical risk premium and a cooling of speculative trading [1][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% has exerted downward pressure on precious metals, including silver, with an increase in the number of officials supporting no rate cuts this year [2] - Global silver mine production is expected to increase by 1.9% in 2025, reaching 83,500 million ounces (approximately 25,972 tons), primarily driven by growth in Mexico, Chile, and Russia [2] - The silver market remains tight, but there are no signs of significant inventory depletion, with COMEX silver futures inventory increasing by 15,000 million ounces since the beginning of the year [3] Group 3 - The Chinese photovoltaic industry's explosive growth has supported silver's industrial demand, but the marginal demand is currently slowing down, and global economic recession risks are suppressing cyclical demand for silver [4] - The gold price has stronger upward momentum in the current macro environment, making it difficult for silver prices to narrow the gap with gold prices, leading to an upward trend in the gold-silver ratio [4]