上市10天6倍后，还有分析师继续看涨Circle？

Core Viewpoint - Circle, known as the "first stock of stablecoins," has seen its stock price surge over 650% since its IPO, with a recent increase of over 20% following the passage of the GENIUS Act by the U.S. Senate, which establishes a federal regulatory framework for dollar-backed stablecoins [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Circle's stock price rose to $240.28, marking a cumulative increase of over 675% from its IPO price of $31 [3]. - The stock experienced a nearly 30% increase on the day the GENIUS Act was announced [3]. - Analyst Jeff Cantwell from Seaport Research Partners has initiated a "buy" rating for Circle with a target price of $235, anticipating significant growth in the stablecoin market [3]. Group 2: Market Potential - The stablecoin market is projected to grow from $260 billion to $500 billion by the end of 2026, with a long-term potential of reaching $2 trillion [4]. - Circle's USDC stablecoin currently holds a 29% market share, second only to Tether's USDT, and is expected to see expanded use cases as more businesses adopt stablecoins for financial management and payments [4]. - Circle is developing financial infrastructure to attract more enterprises and customers into the cryptocurrency space, with its Circle Payments Network facilitating real-time cross-border payments [4]. Group 3: Business Model Challenges - Circle's revenue is heavily reliant on interest income from reserve assets, which accounted for 95%-99% of total revenue over the past three fiscal years [5]. - A decrease in interest rates by 25 basis points could reduce Circle's projected EBITDA by approximately $100 million for 2026, necessitating a 10% increase in stablecoin adoption to offset this impact [5]. - The company incurs distribution fees to partners like Coinbase, which further pressures profit margins [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - Circle is viewed as one of the few pure stablecoin investment opportunities, with competitors like Tether not publicly traded and Coinbase being more of a partner than a direct competitor [6]. - The significant valuation increase raises questions about the sustainability of its 650% price surge, driven more by market optimism than by substantial improvements in fundamentals [6]. - Cantwell compares the current state of the cryptocurrency and stablecoin markets to the fintech industry in 2016, suggesting that while still immature, there are substantial growth opportunities ahead [6].