伊以大打出手，黄金“无动于衷”，这很不寻常

Core Viewpoint - The rapid decline of geopolitical risk premium in gold amidst escalating Israel-Iran conflict and U.S. military intervention signals is considered unusual by Deutsche Bank, suggesting it may be a false signal [1][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - Gold prices fell below $3,370, marking a cumulative decline of over 1.8%, the first drop in three weeks, despite the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict [1]. - Historical data indicates that gold's event risk premium typically peaks between the 8th and 20th trading days after a crisis, with average increases of 5.5% for spot prices and 6.3% for model residuals [4][12]. Group 2: U.S. Military Signals - The U.S. President's comments about a potential military strike on Iran within two weeks have intensified the geopolitical context, contrasting with gold's lack of response [5][6]. - Deutsche Bank notes that the U.S. military's actual redeployments, including the B-2 bombers and the Nimitz carrier group, suggest a serious military posture [6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Observations - Historical analysis shows that gold prices typically rise during crises, with an average increase of 3% across 28 crisis events, although individual events can vary significantly [7][14]. - The current conflict's significance is deemed higher than previous events, implying that gold's response should at least match the historical average increase of 3% [14]. - The maximum single response averages for spot prices (5.5%) and model residuals (6.3%) are considered more relevant than the average peak values [14].