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金晟富:6.21黄金探底回升考验关键位置!下周黄金趋势展望
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-21 05:03

Group 1 - The recent FOMC statement reinforced the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, maintaining interest rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range, while also lowering the expected number of rate cuts for the year, putting downward pressure on gold prices [1] - Gold prices have stabilized but fell 1.8% this week, closing around 3368, influenced by rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, which typically exert pressure on non-yielding assets like gold [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose over 2 basis points to 4.421%, and the 30-year yield increased to 4.924%, indicating a stabilization of market risk sentiment [1] Group 2 - A recent World Gold Council survey indicated that central banks have increased their gold reserves by over 1000 tons annually for the past three years, double the average growth rate of the previous decade, with 95% of respondents expecting further increases in the next 12 months [2] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates steady in its four meetings of 2025, with officials divided on when to resume rate cuts, predicting an average of two cuts by the end of the year [2] - Recent U.S. CPI and retail data showed unexpected declines, raising concerns about economic slowdown and increasing expectations for rate cuts, which could support a bullish outlook for gold prices [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis suggests that gold has formed a double bottom support at 3340, with the market expected to remain in a consolidation phase, indicating that the bullish trend is still intact despite recent fluctuations [2][4] - The key resistance level for gold is identified at 3385, and a breakout above this level could signal a stronger bullish momentum, while failure to break could lead to further declines [4][5] - The trading strategy for the upcoming week suggests focusing on buying on dips around 3350-3355 and selling on rebounds near 3385-3390, emphasizing the importance of market conditions and real-time adjustments [5][6]