势不可当！楼市调整趋势不可逆转，房价跌至多少才会有人买？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a significant downward adjustment in the first half of 2023, with various cities showing varying degrees of price declines and a notable increase in housing supply, indicating a growing pressure of oversupply in the market [1][3]. Price Trends - In June, 91 out of 100 cities reported a decline in second-hand housing prices, with only one city remaining stable and eight cities experiencing slight increases. Specifically, first-tier cities saw a price drop of 0.13%, second-tier cities dropped by 0.27%, and third and fourth-tier cities decreased by 0.3% [1]. - The most drastic decline was observed in Dandong, Liaoning, where second-hand housing prices fell by 2% month-on-month [1]. Market Dynamics - The transaction volume in the market continues to shrink, with the number of second-hand residential listings in 13 key cities rising to 1.99 million, a 25% increase from 1.59 million at the beginning of the year. Notably, cities like Shanghai, Wuhan, and Xi'an saw increases of 82%, 72%, and 40%, respectively [1]. - A survey by the central bank revealed that only 15.9% of residents expect housing prices to rise, while 16.5% predict a decline, reflecting a growing pessimism about future price trends [1]. Consumer Behavior - The prolonged impact of the pandemic has led to a decrease in income and job losses among the middle class, resulting in a more rational approach to home buying, with consumers no longer blindly pursuing real estate [3]. - Speculators, after two years of market observation, have recognized the diminishing profitability of real estate investments, leading many to sell properties or hold cash, further exacerbating market downward pressure [3]. Price Adjustment Predictions - The extent of price adjustments varies significantly across cities. For first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, prices need to drop to around 20,000 yuan per square meter to align with local income levels. Second-tier cities may need to fall to 6,000-8,000 yuan per square meter, while third and fourth-tier cities could stabilize at 3,000-4,000 yuan per square meter [5]. - Despite these predictions, there are doubts about the feasibility of such price drops, as current average prices in first-tier cities remain between 65,000-70,000 yuan per square meter, with some new properties exceeding 100,000 yuan per square meter [5]. Market Outlook - There is a divergence of opinions regarding how much further prices need to drop to attract buyers back into the market. Some believe a 20% decrease would suffice, while others argue that a drop of at least 50% is necessary due to the significant market bubble [6].