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金荣中国:美联储利率决定(上限)维持4.5%利率不变,符合市场预期
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-21 05:52

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, closing at $3,392.69 per ounce after a high of $3,400.04 and a low of $3,370.57 [1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [3] - The dot plot indicates a median interest rate forecast of 3.9% for 2025, with expectations of two rate cuts, while 7 out of 19 officials believe there will be no cuts this year [3][4] - Core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1% respectively, indicating a slight increase in inflation outlook [4] Economic Outlook - The economic outlook shows reduced uncertainty but remains at a high level, with GDP growth forecasts for the end of 2025 and 2026 lowered to 1.4% and 1.6% [4] - Current economic growth is estimated between 1.5% to 2%, with the labor market remaining robust and unemployment rates low [6] Communication Strategy - The Federal Reserve plans to review its communication framework by the end of summer, considering improvements to tools like the dot plot [7] - There is a divergence among officials regarding future rate cuts, with 10 expecting at least two cuts this year, while 7 believe there will be no changes [7] Trade and Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced intentions to reach a trade agreement with India [8] - The UN Security Council is set to hold an emergency meeting regarding the Israel-Iran conflict [9] - Reports indicate that Iran is open to talks with the U.S. following Trump's proposal [10] - Israel anticipates U.S. involvement in potential strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities [11] - Russia has threatened intervention if the U.S. engages in the Israel-Iran conflict [12]