Core Viewpoint - The current state of the ready-to-drink tea industry is improving, with a price war easing and a trend towards brand concentration, benefiting from external delivery subsidies that stimulate demand [1][2] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - Since H2 2024, the ready-to-drink tea industry has seen a slowdown in price wars, with market consolidation continuing after previous store closures [1] - In April 2025, JD.com entered the food delivery market with a substantial subsidy plan, prompting competitors like Meituan and Ele.me to follow suit, which has positively impacted the tea industry due to its stable delivery and high consumption frequency [1] - Although delivery subsidies have normalized since June, brands have benefited from increased exposure and effective consumer engagement, leading to significant long-tail effects [1] Group 2: Supply Chain and Franchise Relations - The company has achieved nationwide supply chain coverage across 31 provinces, supported by 25 warehouses and over 300 temperature-controlled delivery vehicles, enabling same-day delivery [1] - The strategic national layout is characterized by initial challenges followed by easier expansion, with lower marginal costs for new store openings as the network is established [1] - As of the end of 2024, the company has 8,382 franchise stores and aims to enhance efficiency and cost optimization while maintaining a reasonable pace of new openings to stabilize gross profit and improve store profitability [1] Group 3: Product Strategy and International Expansion - The company's product matrix includes classic, seasonal, and regional products, allowing for continuous innovation and frequent new product launches, with a recent lychee series achieving over 2 million cups sold within five days [1] - In 2023, the company began expanding into international markets with a model of "international supply chain + local procurement," entering eight countries including Australia, South Korea, and Singapore, with South Korea already achieving franchise qualifications [2] - Overseas stores are reportedly profitable, with a faster return on investment compared to domestic operations, and the company plans to accelerate international store openings over the next three years [2] Group 4: Financial Outlook - In 2024, the company is expected to increase marketing expenditures to repair brand image, which, along with store compensation and listing costs, may pressure operational performance [2] - As the impact of public sentiment diminishes, the market maintains positive expectations regarding the company's supply chain advantages, with a forecast for steady recovery in store numbers and performance by 2025 [2] - Projected EPS for 2025-2027 are 0.68, 0.86, and 1.12 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 10, and 8 times, leading to an initial "buy" investment rating [2]
茶百道(2555.HK)：供应链优势领航 关注经营底部反转
Ge Long Hui·2025-06-21 07:41