为什么发行稳定币？王晋斌：美国正在重新匹配全球美元供求

Core Viewpoint - The United States is seeking to issue stablecoins as a financial tool to maintain the dominance of the dollar, contrasting with traditional "petrodollar" and "chip dollar" strategies [2][7]. Group 1: Trade Deficit and Economic Impact - The U.S. trade deficit has significantly expanded since the pandemic, with the BEA reporting a total goods trade deficit of $5.44 trillion from 2020 to 2024, exceeding $1 trillion annually from 2021 to 2024 [2]. - The financial account net borrowing for the U.S. is projected to reach $4.56 trillion from 2020 to 2024, leading to a staggering net foreign investment position of -$26.2 trillion by the end of 2024 [2]. Group 2: Changes in Trade Deficit and Investment Strategy - Following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, 2025, the U.S. goods trade deficit significantly narrowed, with April's deficit at approximately $87.4 billion, only 56.3% of the average for the first three months of the year [4]. - The introduction of stablecoins aims to create new investment products that generate demand for dollars, allowing the dollars from trade partners to flow back into the U.S. market [5]. Group 3: Stablecoin Legislation and Market Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury reports that global holdings of U.S. Treasury securities reached $9.05 trillion by March 2025, with non-U.S. official holdings dropping to 43.3%, indicating a shift in the structure of Treasury holders [5]. - The GENIUS Act aims to restrict foreign entities from issuing stablecoins in the U.S., which could lead to a significant change in the investor base for U.S. Treasuries, increasing domestic demand [6]. Group 4: Implications for Dollar Demand and Financial Stability - The issuance of stablecoins is expected to create new channels for dollar demand, supporting the U.S. fiscal position and the overall dollar monetary system [6]. - The strategy of balancing global dollar supply and demand through stablecoins is seen as beneficial for maintaining the value of the dollar, positioning stablecoins as a new tool for dollar hegemony [6].