情绪周期正接近尾声！调整还有多久结束？——极简投研

Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The discussion around Pop Mart has sparked adjustments in the new consumption direction, highlighting the importance of capturing consumer mindset for sustained success in both new and old consumption sectors [1][2] - Pop Mart's revenue from its core blind box business is projected to reach 6.94 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 44.7%, but its revenue share has dropped to 53.2% [2] - The plush toy segment is expected to generate 2.83 billion yuan in 2024, showing a staggering year-on-year growth of 1289%, with its revenue share rising to 21.7% [2] - The MEGA series, targeting high-end collectors, is forecasted to achieve 1.68 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, a 146.1% increase, positioning it as a premium collectible akin to "Moutai in the trendy toy sector" [2] - The emerging business line, including derivatives like building blocks and jewelry, is anticipated to generate 1.59 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 156.2% year-on-year growth [3] Group 2: Risks and Valuation - The blind box model creates customer dependency, while the MEGA model has niche high-end social attributes, both of which can command higher valuations [3] - The plush toy business, while performing well, resembles the film industry and relies on the continuous emergence of hit products, making it a less stable business model [3] - Pop Mart's valuation framework should focus on the "blind box + MEGA" business as the foundation, with plush toys contributing to revenue elasticity; a stock price reflecting only the "blind box + MEGA" valuation may indicate a potential bottom [3] Group 3: Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a significant adjustment, with some institutions claiming that the export of innovative drug patents is currently the best business model, comparable in scale to the new energy vehicle sector [6] - The industry faces cyclical challenges, with a narrowing window for new innovative drug investments and a saturated merger and acquisition landscape among multinational pharmaceutical companies [6] - The high "return rate" of authorized cooperation transactions, which reached 40% in 2020 and around 20% in subsequent years, poses a risk to the sector's stability [6] - The future success of the innovative pharmaceutical industry hinges on the advancement and commercialization of completed external authorization projects, which will determine the potential for higher milestone payments and sales shares for Chinese pharmaceutical companies [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Trends - The current sentiment cycle is nearing its end, with a noticeable decline in the profitability index across various market capitalizations, particularly in small-cap stocks [9] - A drop in the profitability index below 20 typically indicates that risks have been sufficiently released, paving the way for a new market cycle [10] - The main risk factor for the market remains the potential involvement of the U.S. in the Israel-Palestine conflict, which may cause temporary disturbances in the A-share market [10]