稳定币热潮背后，有何暗流？

Group 1 - The total transaction volume of stablecoins reached $27.6 trillion in 2024, surpassing the combined transaction volume of Visa and Mastercard, indicating a growing focus on stablecoins by sovereign nations and multinational companies [1] - Multiple countries have recently introduced or optimized regulatory frameworks for stablecoins, including Hong Kong's Stablecoin Ordinance, the UK's FCA proposals, and the US Senate's GENIUS Act, reflecting a global trend towards regulatory clarity [1][3] - Major companies like JD.com and Ant Group are planning to issue stablecoins to enhance cross-border payment capabilities, while US giants like Walmart and Amazon are exploring their own stablecoin issuance [1][2][4] Group 2 - The GENIUS Act aims to establish a unified regulatory framework for USD-pegged stablecoins, driven by concerns over systemic risks associated with stablecoin holdings of US Treasury bonds and the need for compliance following the Terra collapse [3][4] - Companies are motivated to issue stablecoins to reduce payment costs and transaction fees, thereby circumventing the high fees imposed by traditional credit card networks, which can amount to billions annually [4][5] - The emergence of stablecoins is seen as a challenge to the existing payment monopoly held by Visa and Mastercard, with companies seeking to create a more cost-effective and controlled payment ecosystem [5] Group 3 - Chinese companies like JD.com and Ant Group aim to issue stablecoins primarily to serve cross-border e-commerce and enhance their global payment networks, differing from US companies' motivations [6] - The issuance of stablecoins by Chinese firms is also aligned with national policy objectives, potentially serving as a testing ground for digital currency strategies amid the internationalization of the digital yuan [6][7] - Stablecoins can help mitigate the proliferation of USDT in gray markets, providing legitimate settlement tools for real trade and enhancing visibility in cross-border capital flows [7] Group 4 - The USDT market is significant, with a market cap of approximately $155 billion in 2024, and it holds over $120 billion in US Treasury bonds, indicating its growing role in the US financial system [10] - Stablecoins are becoming an "invisible return" channel for US debt financing, with their bond purchases impacting US Treasury yields and saving the government substantial interest costs [10] - The penetration of stablecoins in regions like Latin America and Southeast Asia highlights their role as digital proxies for the dollar, filling gaps left by traditional financial systems [11] Group 5 - Hong Kong's recent passage of the Stablecoin Ordinance reflects both local interests in building a digital financial infrastructure and broader national strategies in the context of US-China monetary competition [11][12] - The ordinance aims to create a stable and efficient clearing mechanism for future digital asset transactions, positioning Hong Kong as a key player in the global financial landscape [13][14] - The regulatory framework for stablecoins in Hong Kong may challenge existing monetary systems, necessitating careful management of relationships between the Hong Kong dollar, US dollar stablecoins, and mainland capital controls [17][18]