Nvidia Stock Prediction, From Someone Who Has Invested for Decades

Core Insights - Nvidia has rapidly ascended to become one of the largest companies globally, with a market cap exceeding $3.5 trillion, trailing only Microsoft [1] - The company's growth has been primarily driven by its industry-leading GPUs, which are favored by AI developers for their performance [1] Revenue and Margin Growth - Nvidia's revenue has surged dramatically, from approximately $27 billion in 2022 to $130 billion in the most recent quarter, marking an over 800% increase in share price [5] - The company's gross margin has also improved, rising from around 60% in 2022 to approximately 70% today, significantly outperforming competitors like AMD and Intel [6] Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment for AI chips is expected to intensify, with established players like AMD and Intel improving their offerings and new entrants such as Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Apple developing their own AI chip designs [8] - As the AI chip market becomes more saturated, the focus may shift from Nvidia to companies that purchase AI chips, particularly those in the cloud services sector [9] Amazon's Position - Amazon is poised to benefit from the competitive AI chip market, as it will save costs when chip prices decline, leading to higher profits [10] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) holds about 30% of the cloud services market, which is significant as it equals the combined market share of Microsoft and Alphabet [11] - The cloud infrastructure market is valued at around $700 billion and is growing at approximately 15% year over year, with the rise of AI systems further driving demand for cloud-based solutions [12] Future Outlook - While Nvidia currently leads in the AI space, the evolving AI revolution may favor companies in the cloud services market, with Amazon potentially outperforming Nvidia in the long term [13]