聚乙烯、聚丙烯：本周成本涨，6月PP计划产能220万吨

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a significant increase in crude oil prices, which in turn affects the polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets through various intertwined factors [1] Supply Side - WTI crude oil prices increased by 10.26% and Brent crude oil prices rose by 9.93% this week, contributing to rising costs in the PE and PP markets [1] - PE capacity utilization is at 78.10%, down 3.01% week-on-week, but up 0.09% year-on-year; PP capacity utilization is at 80.98%, up 3.67% week-on-week and 9.80% year-on-year [1] - In June, the planned production capacity for polypropylene is 2.2 million tons, marking the highest monthly output for the year [1] Import and Export Dynamics - In April, domestic PE imports reached 1.2598 million tons, up 14.42% month-on-month and 15.23% year-on-year, primarily from the Middle East; PP imports were 179,400 tons, down 6.99% month-on-month and 5.46% year-on-year [1] - PE exports in April were 93,300 tons, down 13.73% month-on-month but up 3.02% year-on-year; PP exports were 253,000 tons, down 11.19% month-on-month but up 11.64% year-on-year [1] Demand Side - The downstream operating rate for PE is at 38.00%, down 1.94% week-on-week and 5.28% year-on-year; for PP, the operating rate is at 49.63%, down 0.68% week-on-week and 1.19% year-on-year, indicating a seasonal downturn [1] Inventory Levels - PE production enterprise inventory stands at 499,400 tons, down 1.83% week-on-week but up 2.17% year-on-year; PE trader inventory is at 56,400 tons, down 6.53% from the previous week [1] - PP production enterprise inventory is at 607,600 tons, up 4.52% week-on-week and up 10.21% year-on-year; PP trader inventory is at 148,800 tons, up 5.31% from the previous week [1] Market Outlook - The supply side shows high production levels for PP, with upstream companies accumulating inventory; the LL-PP price spread may have bottomed out due to the rebound in crude oil prices [1] - The forecast for next week suggests a reference range for polyethylene (LL2509) and polypropylene (PP2509) with a strategy to wait for increased propylene output from Shandong refineries before taking long positions on the LL-PP price spread [1]