黄金走势推演与后市机会分析（2025.6.22）

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a slight increase at the beginning of the week but faced resistance and declined, ultimately closing lower by the end of the week [1] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, have heightened market risk aversion, providing some support for gold prices [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during its June meeting, indicating potential inflationary pressures but emphasizing a cautious approach towards rate cuts, which has kept the dollar strong and pressured gold prices [3] Group 2: Upcoming Focus - Attention will be on speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell's testimony regarding monetary policy, which may provide insights into future policy directions [4] - Key economic data releases to watch include initial jobless claims, Q1 GDP final figures, and core PCE price index data, which could influence market sentiment [4] - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East due to U.S. military actions against Iranian nuclear facilities could further increase market volatility and risk aversion [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a critical phase, with two main perspectives on whether the third wave of price movement has concluded [5] - If the third wave is deemed complete, the market may be in a fourth wave adjustment phase, with a key observation point at the price level of 3452 [8] - Conversely, if the third wave is still ongoing, the current price movement could be part of a larger upward trend, necessitating close monitoring of price structures and potential breakout points [10][13]