全球市场动态：伊朗局势紧张，欧洲经济困局，美联储何去何从？

Group 1: Geopolitical Risks and Energy Sector - The escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran, are causing significant market anxiety, with potential military actions by the U.S. being a focal point [1] - Iran's oil exports, which stand at 2 million barrels per day, could be severely impacted by conflict, leading to substantial increases in global oil prices, with predictions ranging from $75 to $90 per barrel [1] - The possibility of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked could push oil prices above $100, highlighting the importance of the energy sector amid geopolitical risk premiums [1] Group 2: European Market Concerns - European stock markets have experienced a three-day decline, with the Stoxx Europe 600 and FTSE 100 indices showing downward trends [2] - The IMF has warned of stagnation risks in the Eurozone, urging the EU to increase its budget by 50%, as the region faces challenges such as weak manufacturing PMI and service sector contraction [2] - The European Central Bank may need to continue lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy, while Germany's fiscal stimulus measures require time to assess their effectiveness [2] Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - The U.S. Federal Reserve is in a challenging position, balancing inflation pressures and the risk of economic recession, with market reactions indicating a search for safe-haven assets [2] - Despite recent declines in gold and silver prices, their safe-haven attributes are expected to be highlighted amid rising geopolitical risks [2] - The Canadian government's warning of increased tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum could further complicate trade relations and impact global supply chains, particularly in the manufacturing sector [2]