帮主郑重：A股下周“深蹲起跳”？三大信号决定抄底窗口！

Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3400 points, closing around 3360 points, with trading volume shrinking to around 1 trillion [3] - The support level is strong at 3340-3360 points, which corresponds to the lower boundary of a previous consolidation range and the 60-day moving average [3] - The ChiNext Index nearly breached 2000 points, indicating a growing demand for a rebound due to overselling [3] News Impact - The Middle East conflict, particularly between Iran and Israel, has led to rising oil prices, with Brent crude oil experiencing significant increases, potentially exceeding $100 according to Goldman Sachs [4] - This situation presents a dual impact on A-shares: sectors like oil, gas, and gold may benefit, while export-reliant sectors such as electronics and home appliances could face challenges [4] - Domestic policies are supportive, with the launch of cross-border payment services and various financial opening measures announced by the central bank, which could benefit banks and digital currency sectors [4] Policy Environment - The central bank injected 1.4 trillion in liquidity but did not adjust the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), indicating a focus on targeted support rather than broad stimulus [5] - Policy easing in the real estate sector, such as the removal of purchase restrictions in Guangzhou, may provide some stimulus to building materials and home furnishings, but expectations for a significant sector rally should be tempered [5] - Key sectors like semiconductors and AI computing are receiving clear policy support, presenting opportunities during market pullbacks [5] Capital Flow - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of over 20 billion, while domestic institutional investors withdrew more than 60 billion, indicating a cautious market sentiment [6] - Despite the outflows, sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals attracted investment, with banks and utilities serving as safe havens [6] - The valuation advantage of A-shares remains, suggesting that capital may return once geopolitical tensions ease [6] Strategy for Next Week - A cautious approach is recommended, maintaining a position of around 50% to allow for flexibility [7] - Key focus areas include cross-border payment initiatives, oversold technology sectors, and defensive assets like oil and gold [7] - Monitoring trading volume and sector performance will be crucial for potential adjustments in positions [7]