山西焦煤(000983)更新点评：产量稳定增长 价格降幅大幅优于行业平均水平

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to outperform the industry in terms of coal prices due to its high-quality coking coal resources, despite a significant decline in sales driven by lower downstream demand [1]. Financial Performance - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, with projected total revenue of 45.29 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 18.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.11 billion yuan, down 54.1% [2]. - In Q1 2025, total revenue is expected to be 9.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.46%, with a net profit of 681 million yuan, down 28.33% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are 0.54, 0.59, and 0.66 yuan respectively, with a target price of 7.5 yuan based on a 14x PE valuation for 2025 [2]. Production and Sales - In 2024, raw coal production is projected to increase slightly to 47.22 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 2.47%, while total coal sales are expected to drop significantly to 25.60 million tons, a decrease of 20% [3]. - Specific sales figures include: raw coal sales of 1.22 million tons (up 56.41%), coking coal sales of 5.89 million tons (down 20.30%), and mixed coal sales of 7 million tons (down 35.13%) [3]. Pricing and Cost Management - The average selling price of the company's coal is expected to decline by 5.43% to 1,037.23 yuan per ton, which is better than the industry average decline of 11.42% for main coking coal prices [4]. - The company demonstrated strong cost control with operating costs in Q1 2025 down 17.51% year-on-year and 27% quarter-on-quarter, alongside a period expense ratio of 12.15% [4]. Future Growth Potential - The company announced a successful bid for exploration rights in Shanxi, acquiring coal and associated bauxite resources with a total coal reserve of 952.78 million tons and planned production capacity of 8 million tons per year [4].