智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，2025年前三季度煤价仍同比下跌，煤企业绩同比仍回落，但 在"反内卷"影响之下，Q3煤炭价格已环比明显修复，煤企Q3业绩环比亦明显改善，展望后续，预计查 超产政策对供给的约束影响具有持续性，叠加即将步入冬季旺季需求具有强支撑，港口库存低位徘徊， 煤价有望保持震荡偏强态势，同时公司成本端仍在持续优化，故此煤企业绩低点或已显现。在煤价回 暖、板块低拥挤度背景下，低估值、高股息率、现金奶牛的煤炭板块底部配置价值正逐步凸显。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 2025年第三季度：煤价环比回升，主要上市煤企业绩环比改善 2025Q3，夏季用电较旺背景下火电需求同比增长，安监升级、降雨等因素影响下国内三季度产量同比 收缩，供需错配下煤价Q3回暖显著，2025Q3秦港动力煤(Q5500，山西产)均价为672元/吨，环比 +6.47%；2025Q3京唐港主焦煤(山西产)均价为1562元/吨，环比+18.76%。煤价回升叠加龙头公司控本降 费，主要上市煤企2025Q3业绩环比显著改善。 国泰海通重点关注的28家煤炭上市公司，2025Q3合计实现营业收入3022.96亿元，环比+11%；合计实现 归 ...

国企红利ETF紧密跟踪中证国有企业红利指数，中证国有企业红利指数从国有企业中选取现金股息率高、分红比较稳定且有一定规模及流动性的100只上市 公司证券作为指数样本，反映国有企业中高股息率证券的整体表现。 截至2025年11月5日 09:59，中证国有企业红利指数(000824)下跌0.01%。成分股浦发银行(600000)领涨1.55%，开滦股份(600997)、恒源煤电(600971)跟涨；厦 门象屿(600057)领跌，神火股份(000933)、建发股份(600153)跟跌。国企红利ETF(159515)下修调整。 据Wind数据显示，流动性方面，国企红利ETF盘中换手0.12%，成交5.51万元。拉长时间看，截至11月4日，国企红利ETF近1周日均成交584.18万元。 基本面上，四季度以来，科技成长板块呈现反复震荡态势，市场波动加剧。在此背景下，权益类资产风险偏好有所回落，投资者行为更趋谨慎。部分资金选 择从进攻性策略转向防御性布局，推动红利板块持续维持相对强势表现。 机构分析指出，短期看，大盘震荡期红利风格配置性价比凸显。长期看，当前新"国九条"、市值管理等政策鼓励上市公司分红。对于央企来说，健全分 ...

调研报告——焦煤/焦炭 山西焦煤生产情况调研报告 | 走势评级: | | --- | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 焦煤/焦炭：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 11 月 04 日 [Table_Summary] ★煤矿开工维持低位 调研了解，当下煤矿生产重心已由以量换价转为以安全定量生产， 下半年整体开工率较上半年明显回落，当前煤矿开工率处于全年 中等偏低水平，且低于国庆节前水平。虽政策端无量化减产目标， 但部分煤矿现在主动降低负荷，尤其上半年产量较高企业下降明 显。至春节前，煤矿在基本完成年度生产任务后，将以安全生产 为主，适度控制生产节奏，预计煤矿开工将延续低位运行。 同时了解到，由于蒙古国内政治局势变化蒙煤阶段性通关降低； 且蒙 5 占比下降，由前期的 40%左右将至 20%左右，因此主焦煤 结构性偏紧，部分之前采购蒙煤的下游转至山西市场采购，使得 山西高低硫主焦煤价格结构性上涨。 目前煤矿整体开工率处于全年中等偏低水平，且低于国庆节前水 平，国庆后下游补库叠加供应下降使得煤矿库存下降明显，但同 时下游库存有所升高，若后期铁水产量出现回落，下游进一步补 库的动能或将减弱。综上，焦煤目前基本面偏紧 ...

在建工程方面，目前公司着手吕梁兴县区块煤炭及共伴生资源勘探开发，已于6 月20 日取得《矿产资源 勘查许可证》，煤矿设计能力为800 万吨/年，未来有望提供增量。此外公司作为山西焦煤集团旗下的 焦煤上市平台，未来可展望焦煤资产注入。 盈利预测及估值：预计公司2025-2027 年实现营业收入360/372/398 亿元，同 比-20.45%/+3.30%/+7.03%；实现归母净利润19.61/23.34/28.97 亿元，同比-36.89%/+18.98%/+24.14%， 维持公司"强烈推荐"评级。 事件：公司发布2025 年三季报，2025 年前三季度公司实现营业收入272 亿元，同比-17.9%；实现归母 净利润14.3 亿，同比-49.6%。单季度来看，2025年Q3 公司实现营业收入91 亿元，同比下降20.8%；实 现归母净利润为4.2亿元，同比下降52.2%，环比+26.3%。 2025 年业绩下滑，主要是煤价下跌。2025 年由于供需格局宽松，煤价大幅下跌，导致公司业绩承压， 2025 年6 月京唐港主焦煤均价1240 元/吨，同比-39.8%。随着国家反内卷政策不断落实，当前煤炭行业 供给 ...

开源证券指出，多数煤企依然保持了高分红的意愿，中报仍有6家上市煤企发布中期分红方案（中国神 华/山西焦煤（000983）/陕西煤业（601225）/上海能源（600508）/兖矿能源（600188）/中煤能源）。 资本市场在全球政经高度不确定以及国内稳经济的预期下，投资行为存在情绪上的脉冲，煤炭板块具备 周期与红利的双重属性，当前煤炭持仓低位，基本面已到拐点右侧，已到布局时点。 部分煤炭股继续上扬，截至发稿，力量发展(01277)涨5.19%，报1.62港元；易大宗(01733)涨4.6%，报 0.91港元；中煤能源（601898）(01898)涨2.63%，报11.71港元；中国神华（601088）(01088)涨1.3%，报 41.98港元。 消息面上，申万宏源表示，大秦铁路（601006）检修结束，调入量环比回升、但同比仍偏低。同时，中 央安全生产考核巡查组将于11月全面进驻，主产区安监形势趋于严峻，进一步强化市场对供给收紧的预 期。展望后市，预计11月后安监趋严；运费上涨带来发运倒挂、与冬季取暖旺季需求共振，预计动力煤 价格修整后将上涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Coking Coal (000983) reported a closing price of 7.35 yuan on November 3, 2025, with a slight increase of 0.41% and a trading volume of 744,500 shares, amounting to a total transaction value of 549 million yuan [1]. Group 1: Trading Information - On November 3, the net inflow of main funds was 8.4957 million yuan, accounting for 1.55% of the total transaction value [2][4]. - Retail investors contributed a net inflow of 2.4907 million yuan, representing 0.45% of the total transaction value [2]. Group 2: Company Announcement - Shanxi Coking Coal announced that independent director Li Yumin received an administrative penalty notice from the Shanxi Regulatory Bureau of the China Securities Regulatory Commission due to issues related to his role at Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. [2][4]. - The proposed penalty includes a warning and a fine of 100,000 yuan, but this matter is unrelated to Shanxi Coking Coal and will not affect its daily operations [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Shanxi Coking Coal") announced that its independent director Li Yumin has been fined 100,000 yuan due to information disclosure violations at Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. during his tenure as an independent director [1][2]. Summary by Sections - Shanxi Coking Coal received a notification regarding independent director Li Yumin's penalty related to his role at Taiyuan Heavy Industry, where the company is under investigation for information disclosure violations [1][2]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's Shanxi Regulatory Bureau has issued an administrative penalty notice, proposing a warning and a fine of 100,000 yuan for Li Yumin [1][2]. - The company clarified that this administrative penalty is unrelated to its operations and will not impact its daily business activities [2].

能源股，集体异动！ 今日盘中，石油、煤炭板块集体走强，中国海油涨幅一度超过5%，中国石油涨超4%。安泰集团开盘后5分钟内就被 资金直线拉升至涨停板，洲际油气盘中也直线涨停。而临近午盘时分，惠博普也封死了涨停板。 有分析指出，前三季度"三桶油"（中国石油、中国石化、中国海油）业绩相较海外巨头韧性凸显，体现穿越周期属 性，长期投资价值凸显。另外，煤炭板块具备周期与红利的双重属性，随着旺季临近，下游采购力度逐渐加强，煤 炭价格有望迎来新一轮上行。 石油股拉升 在盘整多个交易日后，石油股今日再度爆发，洲际油气率先冲板，中国海油、中国石油、惠博普、通源石油、中国 石化等纷纷拉升。 截至下午收盘，洲际油气、惠博普涨停，中国海油涨近5%，中国石油涨超4%，通源石油涨近4%，贝肯能源、中曼 石油、海油工程涨超3%，石化油服、准油股份等涨超2%，中国石化涨近2%。 今年前三季度，中国石油、中国石化、中国海油归母净利润增速同比分别下降4.9%、32.2%、12.6%；第三季度单 季，中国石油、中国石化、中国海油归母净利润分别同比下降3.9%、0.5%、12.2%。光大证券指出，得益于产量持 续上升和优异的成本控制能力，中国石油、 ...

Group 1 - Shanxi Coking Coal and Hemei Group confirmed that independent director Li Yumin was penalized by the Shanxi Securities Regulatory Bureau for information disclosure violations during his tenure at Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co., Ltd, receiving a warning and a fine of 100,000 yuan [1][4] - Both companies emphasized that the penalty is unrelated to their operations and will not affect daily business activities [5][6] - Li Yumin is also an independent director for three listed companies, including Shanxi Coking Coal and Hemei Group, and has been identified as a responsible party for the false financial reporting at Taiyuan Heavy Industry from 2014 to 2018 [2][3] Group 2 - The financial misconduct at Taiyuan Heavy Industry involved inflated revenue figures, with 2014 and 2016 reporting inflated revenues of 757 million yuan and 752 million yuan, respectively [2] - As a result of the violations, Taiyuan Heavy Industry's stock will be subject to risk warnings starting November 4, changing its name to ST Taiyuan Heavy [2] - Shanxi Coking Coal reported a revenue of 27.175 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 17.88%, with a net profit of 1.434 billion yuan, down 49.62% [5][6] Group 3 - In contrast, Hemei Group reported a total revenue of 456 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 190.21%, and a net profit of 51.748 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [6] - Despite the positive revenue growth, Hemei Group's net profit excluding non-recurring items still showed a loss of 31.573 million yuan, although this was an improvement compared to the previous year [6] - As of October 31, Shanxi Coking Coal's stock price was 7.32 yuan per share, with a total market value of approximately 41.556 billion yuan, reflecting a year-to-date decline of about 7% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [2] Core Views - The coal mining industry is expected to perform well during the winter peak season, despite low production levels [2] - The supply of thermal coal has slightly increased, with port prices remaining stable at 770 RMB/ton as of October 31 [4][14] - The overall coal supply-demand situation remains favorable, with expectations of strong support for coal prices due to seasonal demand [7][72] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - Supply has slightly rebounded, with port coal prices stable at 770 RMB/ton [14][15] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region increased by 0.37 percentage points, mainly due to the resumption of previously halted mines [14][19] - Daily coal consumption at coastal and inland power plants decreased by 0.2 and 19.2 thousand tons respectively [14][22] - Power plant inventories are lower than last year, which may lead to increased replenishment demand if a cold winter materializes [14][31] Coking Coal - Coking coal production capacity utilization decreased by 0.27 percentage points to 84.2% due to inspections and underground issues in some mines [5][39] - The average daily crossing volume at Ganqimaodu port has recovered to over 1,000 trucks, indicating improved logistics [5][43] - Coking coal prices at ports remained stable at 1,760 RMB/ton as of October 31 [5][40] Coke - The supply of coke is stable, with the implementation of price increases, although profit margins for coke producers remain limited due to high coking coal prices [6][52] - The average daily pig iron production decreased by 3.54 thousand tons to 236.31 thousand tons, impacting demand for coke [6][58] - Coke prices at the Rizhao port increased to 1,580 RMB/ton, reflecting a positive trend in the market [6][53] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several key companies for investment, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, which are expected to perform well due to their strong cash flow and market positioning [7][9] - The report emphasizes the value attributes of the coal sector, particularly in light of recent government support and market conditions [7][74]