美国袭击伊朗核设施，市场风险偏好再受冲击

Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has been fluctuating around 6000 points for about two weeks, closing at 5967.84 points, with a weekly decline of 0.15% [1] - The Nasdaq index closed at 19447.41 points, down 0.51%, while the Dow Jones increased by 0.08% to 42206.82 points [1] - The overall market performance indicates a mixed trend, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showing slight declines while the Dow Jones experienced a minor increase [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change [2] - Fed officials project two rate cuts by the end of 2025, with inflation expected to rise to 3% and unemployment to 4.5% by that time [2] - The Fed's stance reflects concerns over worsening inflation and economic growth slowing to 1.4% [2] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Risks - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, may increase market volatility [1][4] - RBC warns that the S&P 500 could drop to a range of 4800 to 5200 points, indicating a potential decline of up to 20% due to these tensions [4] - The ongoing geopolitical risks and inflation concerns are leading to a cautious outlook for the S&P 500 index [5] Group 4: Global Market Outlook - A shift in investment sentiment is noted, with a majority of fund managers believing international markets will outperform U.S. markets over the next five years [5][6] - The potential for a global recession due to trade wars is highlighted as a significant risk, with 47% of fund managers identifying it as a major concern [5] - The current market environment presents opportunities for diversifying investments across different regions and asset classes [5]