张尧浠：地缘局势持续加降息预期、金价高位调整仍待走强

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts, but it still holds potential for upward movement in prices [1][3][7]. Market Performance - Last week, international gold opened at $3450.30 per ounce, reached a high of $3451.04, and then fell to a low of $3340.21, closing at $3368.02, resulting in a weekly decline of $65.72 or 1.91% [1][3]. - The weekly trading range was $110.83, indicating volatility despite the overall downward trend [1]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Escalating geopolitical tensions and the lack of resolution have pressured gold prices, leading traders to lock in profits after reaching an 8-week high [3][6]. - U.S. economic data has been weaker than expected, reinforcing market expectations for interest rate cuts, which could support gold prices [3][6]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold, which is a significant factor supporting gold demand despite geopolitical and economic pressures [6][7]. - The Federal Reserve's projected interest rate cuts in the second half of the year are anticipated to further bolster gold prices [6][7]. Technical Analysis - The gold price remains above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating a bullish trend, with potential for new highs [1][10]. - The monthly chart shows that gold has maintained its upward trajectory since last year, suggesting a continued bullish outlook [9][10]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates that gold prices could potentially exceed $4000 per ounce within the next year, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [7][6]. - Short-term strategies suggest looking for buying opportunities on dips, with key support levels identified around $3367 and $3355 [12].