Ge Long Hui·2025-06-23 01:05Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical and recent trends of the AH premium, indicating a long-term downtrend in the AH premium center due to various factors including market structure, liquidity differences, and the influx of quality assets into the Hong Kong market [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context of AH Premium - The AH premium has historically existed due to differences in market systems, liquidity, and industry structure, with the premium index fluctuating around 115 before the launch of the Stock Connect in late 2014, and rising to an average of 134 post-launch [2][3]. - The differences in listing systems between A-shares and H-shares, such as the introduction of a registration system in A-shares and a more market-driven pricing mechanism in H-shares, contribute to the persistent AH premium [3][4]. Group 2: Recent Changes in AH Premium - Since early 2024, the AH premium has been on a downward trend, with a notable drop to a new low of 128 as of June 16, 2025, which is the lowest since June 2020 [2][8]. - The issuance discount for new Hong Kong listings from mainland companies has narrowed significantly, with the average discount dropping from 17.6 in 2023 to 6.5 in 2024, indicating a shift in market dynamics [8][9]. Group 3: Factors Influencing the Downtrend - The liquidity gap between Hong Kong and A-share markets is narrowing, with significant inflows of southbound capital into Hong Kong, increasing the proportion of southbound holdings from 13.5% in early 2024 to 20.6% [15][16]. - The concentration of quality assets in the Hong Kong market, driven by policies encouraging mainland companies to list in Hong Kong, is expected to further reduce the valuation gap between A-shares and H-shares [16][18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The proportion of emerging industries in the Hong Kong market is anticipated to rise, with a notable decline of 19.6 percentage points in the market capitalization-weighted AH premium rate, primarily driven by traditional sectors [18][20]. - The article suggests that even if the AH premium returns to historical averages, the impact on emerging industries represented by the Hang Seng Technology Index will be limited [18].