东南亚也要乱？泰国女总理录音门，硝烟四起，全球经济何时见底？

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the political turmoil in Thailand following the release of an 8-minute recording involving Prime Minister Petongtan, which may lead to her ousting after only 10 months in office [1] - The recording revealed Petongtan's private conversation with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, where she criticized the Thai military and sought to de-escalate border tensions, leading to public outrage and calls for her impeachment [3][7] - The political landscape in Thailand is characterized by a weak government facing strong military and royalist opposition, which complicates Petongtan's position and may result in further instability if she is removed [7][9] Group 2 - The current situation in Thailand mirrors the pre-1997 Asian financial crisis, with external debt exceeding 50% of GDP and household debt reaching 90%, indicating a precarious economic position [9] - The global economic downturn, exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, poses risks for vulnerable economies like Thailand, which may struggle to recover from the pandemic and slow global demand [11] - The potential for increased military involvement in border conflicts with Cambodia could arise if the government becomes further weakened, reflecting broader regional tensions in Southeast Asia [9][11]