金荣中国：美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为84.5%，降息25个基点的概率为15.5%

Market Overview - International gold maintained a volatile trend on June 20, with an opening price of $3369.20 per ounce, a high of $3375.43, a low of $3340.34, and a closing price of $3369.81 [1] Geopolitical Situation - U.S. military and intelligence officials have detected signs of Iranian-backed militia groups preparing to attack U.S. bases in Iraq, potentially including those in Syria. Iraqi officials are working to dissuade these militia groups from taking action [2] - Reports indicate that Iran's Isfahan facilities may still be intact and need to be addressed to prevent nuclear weapon development. An Iranian parliamentary committee has suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, but the final decision rests with Iran's Supreme National Security Council [3] Military Actions and Legal Framework - Iran has reportedly evacuated three nuclear facilities ahead of potential attacks, with only the above-ground portion of the Fordow facility damaged and repairable. U.S. officials state that President Trump has the constitutional authority to conduct airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities without requiring congressional approval, although future conflicts may necessitate seeking congressional authorization [5] Economic Indicators - According to CME's "FedWatch," there is an 84.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July, with a 15.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut. For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 30%, while the cumulative probabilities for a 25 basis point and 50 basis point cut are 60% and 10%, respectively [5] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic indicators to be released include the June manufacturing PMI for France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the U.S., as well as U.S. existing home sales data [6][7][10]