大出海时代，两轮电动成例外

Core Insights - The two-wheeled electric vehicle (EV) market in China is facing significant growth pressure due to market saturation, with over 350 million units in circulation as of 2024 and a 10.55% year-on-year decline in sales to 49.2 million units [2][3] - The overseas market is seen as the only viable option for growth, but challenges such as regulatory uncertainty and competition from gasoline motorcycles hinder expansion [2][3] - Southeast Asia is identified as a potential market for two-wheeled EVs, supported by favorable government policies promoting the transition from gasoline to electric [3][4] Domestic Market Challenges - The introduction of new national standards for electric bicycles in China will complicate the competitive landscape, with stricter regulations on speed and vehicle design set to take effect in September 2025 [18][19] - The new standards aim to differentiate electric bicycles from electric motorcycles, which may lead to the exit of less compliant brands from the market [22] International Market Opportunities - Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia have implemented favorable policies for electric motorcycles, including zero tariffs and targets for electric vehicle adoption [3][4] - Despite these policies, Chinese manufacturers face quality challenges compared to established gasoline brands like Honda and Yamaha, which dominate the market with a combined 93% share [8][9] B2B Market Dynamics - The B2B segment, particularly in the food delivery sector, presents additional challenges for two-wheeled EVs, as existing delivery models in countries like Mexico favor gasoline motorcycles due to infrastructure and user habits [9][11] - Companies like Didi and Meituan are expanding their delivery services internationally, but the reliance on gasoline vehicles in these markets limits the immediate potential for electric two-wheelers [10][13] Product Development and Supply Chain Issues - The current supply chain for electric motorcycles is underdeveloped compared to electric bicycles, leading to higher costs and lower competitiveness against gasoline models [4][5] - The cost of electric motorcycle components, particularly batteries, significantly exceeds that of gasoline motorcycles, impacting pricing and market positioning [4][5] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to continue focusing on the domestic market due to the challenges of international expansion and the impending regulatory changes [22][18] - Companies are exploring new product categories like E-bikes, which may offer better market opportunities in the future [14][16]