狭义库存降至阶段低点，三类城市或面临供给约束

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the real estate market has stabilized, with a weak recovery in new home transactions leading to a decline in both narrow inventory and the de-stocking cycle [1][2][24] Inventory and De-stocking Cycle - As of the end of April 2025, the narrow inventory in 50 cities reached 30.557 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 1% and a year-on-year decrease of 10% [2][24] - The de-stocking cycle for key cities has shown a fluctuating downward trend, reaching 20.98 months by the end of April, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 6% [1][2][24] - The supply constraints combined with transaction recovery indicate initial success in the industry's de-stocking efforts [2][24] City-Level Analysis - Inventory levels in first-tier cities remained stable at 4.155 million square meters, with a slight month-on-month increase of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.25% [3][24] - Second-tier and third/fourth-tier cities saw a reduction in inventory, with both categories experiencing a year-on-year decline of 11% and 1% respectively [3][24] - The de-stocking cycle in first and second-tier cities has fallen below 20 months, while third and fourth-tier cities still face a cycle of 30 months, indicating ongoing inventory risks [3][24] Inventory Freshness - Over 54% of the inventory in 110 cities consists of supplies from 2020 to 2023, with the proportions for each year being 12%, 14%, 12%, and 16% respectively [9][12] - First-tier cities have a higher inventory freshness compared to second and third-tier cities, with 11.23% of their narrow inventory being newly supplied in 2022-2023, compared to 17.14% in lower-tier cities [8][12] - Cities like Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu have a high proportion of fresh inventory, while cities like Wuxi are burdened with older stock [13][24] Product Segmentation - The main inventory segments are 100-120 square meters and 120-140 square meters, accounting for 24% and 20% of the total inventory respectively [15][18] - Three-bedroom units dominate the inventory, making up 52% of the total, while four-bedroom units account for 28% [21][24] - The trend shows a preference for larger three and four-bedroom units as new supply continues to shrink, potentially leading to inventory accumulation [21][24]