兴业证券：PHEV与智能车双轮驱动 聚焦强产品周期主机厂

Core Viewpoint - The current policy cycle indicates that there is no need to worry about the total volume of passenger car sales, with the PHEV segment still in a growth phase and the smart car market in its early stages [1] Industry Analysis - Passenger car sales are influenced by long, medium, and short cycles, with long-term demand structure and economic environment being crucial, while medium-term policy cycles and new car cycles also play significant roles [1] - The penetration rate of PHEVs is on the rise, and the overall automotive sales outlook is positive under supportive policies [1] - Historical data shows that from 2009 to 2013, Great Wall Motors experienced rapid growth due to market expansion and product cycles, similar trends are observed for Geely and BYD in subsequent years [1] Market Performance - The automotive sector's beta largely follows changes in sales sentiment, with structural trends in new energy, assisted driving, and robotics emerging during stable periods [2] - Since 2010, there have been nine notable phases of absolute and excess returns in the automotive sector, with six phases linked to improved sales expectations [2] Individual Stock Performance - Individual stock performance is driven by new car cycles and high-end expectations, with volume expectations being more critical than price expectations [3] - The stock prices of Great Wall Motors, BYD, and Geely have shown excess returns primarily due to the resonance of SUV/PHEV demand cycles and new car cycles [3] Current Positioning - There is no need to worry about the total volume of passenger cars by 2025, with current inventory levels being low [4] - The PHEV segment is in a mid-growth cycle, while the smart car segment is still in its early growth phase [4] - BYD is projected to hold a 71% market share in the plug-in hybrid sedan market by 2024, with a relatively dispersed market for plug-in hybrid SUVs [4] Investment Opportunities - Focus on manufacturers with strong PHEV product cycles such as Geely, BYD, and Li Auto [5] - Geely is expanding its GEA architecture series, aiming to become a top seller in the microcar segment by 2025 [5] - The company is also expected to improve efficiency through management cost reductions and platform integration [5]