美国承认经济滞涨，鲍威尔硬刚特朗普投下深水炸弹，美经济恶化

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates has raised concerns about the U.S. economy potentially entering a phase of mild stagflation, contrasting sharply with the Trump administration's assertive external posture, which masks underlying fiscal and economic challenges [1][9]. Capital Flows - The U.S. Treasury's International Capital Flow report indicates significant sell-offs of U.S. Treasury bonds by foreign nations, with China selling $8.2 billion and Canada $57.8 billion in April, intensifying pressure on the U.S. Treasury [3]. - In contrast, Japan increased its holdings of U.S. Treasuries by $3.7 billion, maintaining its position as the largest foreign holder at $1.13 trillion, while the UK added $28.4 billion, holding $807.7 billion, showcasing strategic support for the U.S. despite its own economic challenges [5]. Monetary Policy - The Trump administration is under pressure to lower dollar interest rates to reduce the cost of issuing debt, but Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's stance remains hawkish, with indications that interest rates will not decrease through 2025 [7]. - Powell acknowledged that tariff policies are raising U.S. prices and that the economy may be entering a mild stagflation phase, which has led to a significant reduction in expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 [9]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Economic Surprise Index has dropped to its lowest point in nine months, indicating that most economic data is falling short of expectations, suggesting a contraction in economic activity [9]. - The semiconductor industry, a key sector for the U.S., has seen sales decline to $16 billion in April, a 24.6% year-over-year drop, and a 10.5% decrease compared to the last quarter of 2024, reflecting broader economic struggles [9].