外汇市场一周（6.23-6.27）展望：美国动手风险升温，央行密集讲话引导预期

Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks remain the largest shadow over the market, with the conflict between Israel and Iran escalating due to U.S. intervention, adding unpredictable variables to the situation [1] - The direct involvement of the U.S. has fundamentally changed the nature and scale of the conflict, potentially leading to significant sell-offs in risk assets, surges in safe-haven assets, and volatility in energy prices [1] - Oil prices have retreated after hitting key resistance levels, but geopolitical premiums persist, with any escalation in conflict likely to rapidly increase oil prices, impacting global inflation and consumer spending [1] Economic Data - The release of high-quality economic data this week, although limited in quantity, is expected to significantly influence market sentiment [2] - The U.S. first-quarter GDP data is anticipated to show an annualized negative growth of -0.2%, raising concerns about the health of the U.S. economy and potentially igniting discussions about a recession [2] - The market is assessing the impact of U.S. tariffs, indicating potential negative effects of trade policy on economic activity [3] Inflation Indicators - The core PCE data for May, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, is expected to show a month-over-month increase of +0.1%, which is relatively mild [3] - If the data meets or falls below expectations, it may strengthen market expectations for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while a surprise increase could extinguish hopes for rate cuts and lead to significant market adjustments [3] - CPI data from Canada, Australia, and Japan will also provide insights into their respective central banks' policy paths and influence currency performance [3] Central Bank Communications - The speeches of major central bank officials this week are a significant focus for the market [4] - Most central banks have adopted a cautious stance amid uncertain global economic prospects and persistent inflation, with the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cutting rates due to domestic economic pressures [4] - Key speeches from ECB President Lagarde, Fed Chair Powell, and others will provide the latest assessments of the economic situation, inflation outlook, and future policy directions [4] Market Reactions - The resurgence of the U.S. dollar is noteworthy, as it often gains favor as a safe-haven asset amid increasing global uncertainty [5] - If geopolitical risks continue to escalate or economic data indicates more challenges for the global economy, demand for the dollar as a safe haven may further support its strength [5] - The Swiss franc has come under pressure following the SNB's rate cut, complicating its future trajectory [5] Overall Market Environment - The current market environment is characterized by high volatility due to geopolitical tensions, potential economic data impacts, and central bank signals [6] - Investors need to closely monitor developments in the Middle East, particularly any indications of U.S. positions, as well as the interpretation of U.S. GDP and PCE data for insights into economic direction and inflation pressures [6] - Central bank leaders' speeches will provide a window into future monetary policy paths, with a need for investors to maintain cash positions and utilize hedging tools to manage potential tail risks [6]