Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 智通财经网·2025-06-23 04:48Group 1 - Goldman Sachs warns that oil and gas prices may rise following the U.S. attack on Iran, although the bank's base forecast depends on whether there will be significant disruptions in supply in the region [1] - Analysts, including Daan Struyven, indicate that if oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz decreases by half within a month and maintains a 10% reduction over the next 11 months, Brent crude prices could spike to $110 per barrel [1] - If Iranian supply decreases by 1.75 million barrels per day, Brent oil prices could peak at $90 [1] Group 2 - The global oil market is assessing potential price movements as the Middle East crisis escalates, with current crude futures near $79 per barrel [1] - Following the U.S. attack on three Iranian nuclear facilities, Asian trading saw a significant price increase, although Brent crude later retraced some gains as the market refocused on the fact that actual oil transport remains unaffected [1] - Analysts note that major stakeholders, including the U.S. and China, have strong economic incentives to prevent large-scale disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [1] Group 3 - The natural gas market is also viewed as risky, with analysts suggesting that European benchmark futures (TTF) could rise to €74 per megawatt hour (approximately $25 per million British thermal units), a level that previously suppressed demand during the 2022 European energy crisis [1] - In the event of a large-scale and sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, natural gas prices could potentially rise to €100 per megawatt hour [2]