房价连续跌了四年，涨回来只用了三天，楼市拐点到了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent favorable policies in the real estate market, such as lower mortgage rates and relaxed purchase restrictions in major cities, may temporarily boost transaction volumes, but they are unlikely to reverse the long-term downward trend in the housing market [1][7]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The real estate market is facing a significant imbalance, with residential properties accounting for 77% of household assets in China, far exceeding the 40% seen in developed countries, indicating a high reliance on real estate [3]. - There is a substantial oversupply of housing, with approximately 600 million existing homes in China, which could accommodate 3 billion people if each home housed five individuals. This oversupply has shifted the market from a seller's market to a buyer's market [5]. - The price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities is extremely high, with ratios exceeding 40 in cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, making homeownership unattainable for many residents [5]. Group 2: Investment Viability - The rental market is currently reflecting a severe imbalance, with rental costs in first-tier cities often exceeding the costs of purchasing homes. For instance, in Shanghai, a 90 square meter apartment rents for 100,000 yuan annually, while the purchase price is 6 million yuan, leading to a 60-year payback period for investors [5]. - The combination of high property prices, excessive leverage, oversupply, and unfavorable rental-to-sale ratios indicates that the real estate market's investment value is diminishing, with speculative investments dominating [7].