DWS下半年投资展望：关税将提高美国通胀率 黄金迎来新机遇

Group 1: Economic Outlook - DWS forecasts US GDP growth of 1.2% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026, citing increased uncertainty due to consumer spending cuts and delayed investments [1] - From the second half of 2025, tariffs are expected to raise US inflation to around 4% [1] - The Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts until second-round effects are ruled out, then gradually reduce rates to neutral [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - DWS recommends a diversified investment portfolio to navigate uncertain environments, maintaining a neutral stance on bond duration [1] - Focus on mid-term rates and high-quality euro credit in fixed income, while being optimistic about Japanese equities and neutral on other regions [1] - Favorable sectors include healthcare and communication services, with gold seen as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 3: Infrastructure and Energy - Infrastructure and gold are expected to see new opportunities under the new normal of interest rates, with a deep integration across sectors anticipated by 2025 [1] - Power generation is projected to accelerate, reaching its highest level in over 20 years by 2029, with global capital focusing on grid upgrades and expansions [1] - Natural gas consumption is expected to rise, playing a key role in the development of renewable energy [1] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - De-dollarization is driving gold prices higher, with central banks strategically purchasing gold as international reserves shift away from the dollar [2] - Recent increases in gold prices coincide with a decrease in mining costs, providing mining companies with potential for recovery [2]