国金证券：追逐结构景气 守望食饮底部稳增长

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities highlights a persistent trend of differentiation in the consumer sector, with mass consumption and government-business consumption showing varied performance. Companies that embrace new consumer trends, demographics, and channels are emerging, while traditional food and beverage leaders are solidifying their foundations and actively seeking change [1]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The consumer habits are evolving, leading to the emergence of diverse channels that align with these changes. Characteristics such as value-for-money, health consciousness, and emotional consumption are becoming synonymous with high growth [2]. - New channels like online media e-commerce, home delivery, membership supermarkets, and bulk snacks are rising, providing efficient supply chain solutions and targeted selling points that disrupt traditional channels [2]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential of the konjac category, recommending companies like Yanjin Beer and Weilong Delicious. Additionally, it highlights soft drink brands such as Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and Bairun Co., which are expected to see significant growth as they expand nationally [2]. Group 2: Alcohol and Dining Chain Sectors - In the liquor sector, external risk events are expected to have a diminishing impact on the fundamentals, with policies aimed at stabilizing growth likely to continue. The industry is in a bottoming phase, and attention should be paid to seasonal sales to gauge changes in market sentiment [2]. - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor with stable prices and strong competitive advantages, such as Kweichow Moutai, and regional leaders benefiting from robust demand and upgrades in rural consumption [2]. - For the dining chain sector, the report indicates that external uncertainties necessitate a push for domestic demand. With policies gradually taking effect, consumer confidence is expected to improve, leading to enhanced demand in the second half of the year [3]. - The report identifies undervalued stocks in the beer, frozen food, and seasoning sectors, such as Yanjin Beer, Angel Yeast, and Yihai International, as potential investment opportunities [3].