伊朗“大杀器”尚未出鞘：有的是办法在霍尔木兹海峡动手脚！

Core Viewpoint - The focus is on Iran's potential retaliation methods against U.S. military actions, particularly the disruption of oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. Group 1: Iran's Retaliation Options - Iran has various options to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, including low-intensity harassment of vessels and extreme measures like drone attacks or mines [1][2]. - The simplest method for Iran is to escalate harassment against commercial vessels in the Strait, which has been ongoing and could increase due to current tensions [2]. - GPS signal interference has been a significant impact of the ongoing conflict, affecting nearly a thousand vessels daily since June 13, which raises navigation risks [3]. Group 2: Specific Disruption Tactics - The deployment of mines could significantly deter shipping, but the risk to Iran's own vessels may limit this option [4]. - Iran might mimic the tactics of Houthi forces, which have successfully disrupted shipping in the Red Sea, potentially leading to significant impacts on oil supply if enough vessels are targeted [5][6]. - Attacking regional oil targets, such as the Basra oil field in Iraq, is another option, although it may not align with Iran's broader interests [7]. Group 3: Extreme Scenarios - The most extreme scenario would be a complete and prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles approximately 20 million barrels of oil daily [8]. - While OPEC+ members like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have spare capacity, they lack alternative export routes to replace the Strait of Hormuz [8]. - Despite past threats, Iran has never executed a full blockade, and the economic repercussions would be severe for Iran itself, making such actions unlikely [8].