关税风暴、中东危局交织下 股市盼“拨云见日”？当心真相更刺眼

Group 1 - The current global uncertainty is at a decades-high level, driven by events such as Trump's tariff announcements and the Israel-Iran conflict [1][8] - The U.S. is facing a potential doubling of import tariffs if no trade agreements are reached by the end of the 90-day grace period [8] - The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to impose new tariffs or import restrictions on various goods, including semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, following ongoing investigations [8] Group 2 - The existing tariffs could raise U.S. inflation by 0.9 percentage points over the next 12 months, with further increases if tariffs are restored to higher levels [11] - The impact of the proposed budget plan on inflation is minimal compared to the immediate effects of tariff increases [11] - If oil prices rise significantly due to geopolitical tensions, the inflation rate could increase by up to 2 percentage points, surpassing the effects seen in the UK and Eurozone [11] Group 3 - Despite rising risk indicators, U.S. stock investors remain optimistic, with the market currently overvalued by 15% compared to fundamental economic levels [13] - Historical data suggests that such overvaluation often leads to an average 7% correction in the S&P 500 index over the following three months [14] - The resilience of the U.S. stock market may be tested if uncertainties lead to high inflation or economic slowdown [16]