分析师：伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡的概率仍低于50%

Core Viewpoint - The security of the critical energy passage, the Strait of Hormuz, has become the primary concern for investors following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with potential threats of blockage by Iran being a focal point for market speculation [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Airstrikes and Market Reactions - On June 21, U.S. President Trump announced the completion of airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, raising concerns about the safety of the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - Following the airstrikes, the likelihood of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has increased, although the probability remains below 50% [1]. - Analysts predict that Iran may resort to harassment of passing vessels, potentially increasing shipping times and costs, which is expected to drive up oil prices in the market [1]. Group 2: Economic Implications of Strait Blockage - If the Strait of Hormuz were to be blocked, it could lead to unprecedented negative supply shocks in the energy market, with worst-case scenarios predicting oil prices could soar to $130 per barrel and a 0.8% drag on global GDP growth [2]. - The Strait of Hormuz is a vital waterway, carrying approximately 20 million barrels of oil and oil products daily, accounting for over a quarter of global maritime oil trade [1]. Group 3: Iran's Strategic Considerations - There are doubts about Iran's capability to effectively block the Strait due to the significant military presence of the U.S. in the region, which could lead to a strong military response from the U.S. if Iran takes action [3]. - Iran's economy heavily relies on the Strait of Hormuz for its oil exports, making any disruption a potentially "suicidal" move for the country, as it could provoke important trade partners and worsen its domestic economic situation [4]. - Analysts suggest that blocking the Strait may be viewed by Iran as a last resort, given its critical importance to the country's fragile economy [4].