LLDPE、PP市场：价格上涨但供需预期仍偏弱

Core Viewpoint - The plastic and polypropylene (PP) spot market prices are rising, but the supply and demand expectations for polyolefins remain weak [1] Price Movements - LLDPE market prices continue to rise, with increases in North China ranging from 20 to 90 CNY/ton, East China from 20 to 80 CNY/ton, and South China from 10 to 50 CNY/ton, leading to a mainstream price of 7380 to 7850 CNY/ton [1] - The PP spot market is buoyed by futures gains, with prices in North China for drawing wire at 7220 to 7370 CNY, East China at 7270 to 7470 CNY, and South China at 7430 to 7650 CNY [1] Production and Operating Rates - The domestic PP operating rate is at 81.78%, up by 2.16 percentage points from last week, with a parking loss of approximately 127,600 tons, a decrease of 12,900 tons from the previous week [1] - BOPP film operating rates have slightly increased by 1 percentage point, while injection molding has decreased by 1 percentage point [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - New production capacities are gradually coming online, with significant pressure from the upcoming production of PP09 and PE09 contracts [1] - The demand side shows weak year-on-year performance in downstream operations and orders, particularly in the agricultural film sector, which is currently in the off-season [1] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East affects polyolefins in two ways: oil prices on the cost side and a 33% reliance on PE imports, with a notable share from Iran [1] - The dependence on Iranian imports for methanol may indirectly impact PP, while the direct impact of Iranian PP imports is negligible [1] Trading Strategy - The market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations with a bias towards strength, but risks are significant; a wait-and-see approach is recommended [1] - For medium-term strategies, a rebound selling approach is suggested, with attention to Middle Eastern geopolitical developments and oil prices [1]