Novo Nordisk(US:NVO) 智通财经网·2025-06-23 07:24Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk's stock price has rebounded after a significant decline from its peak in June 2024, attributed to easing adverse factors related to GLP-1 drugs and expanded collaborations with traditional and telehealth companies, leading to improved performance expectations for the second half of 2025 [1][4]. Financial Performance - Despite management lowering the sales growth forecast for fiscal year 2025 to 17% and operating profit growth to 20%, the company's expanded production capacity supports optimistic market expectations [5][6]. - The company reported a free cash flow of $1.6 billion in Q1 2025, a 91.6% year-over-year increase, while the fiscal year 2024 free cash flow was $10.25 billion, down 16.6% [6][8]. - Analysts project a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.5% to 15.1% for Novo Nordisk through fiscal year 2027, indicating strong revenue and profit growth despite ongoing price declines for GLP-1 drugs [6][7]. Market Position and Valuation - Novo Nordisk's forward P/E ratio is 18.47, significantly lower than its 1-year average of 26.53, 5-year average of 31.15, and 10-year average of 24.91, suggesting it is undervalued compared to peers like Eli Lilly, which has a forward P/E of 36.04 [9][10]. - The company's PEG ratio of 1.28 is also lower than the industry average of 1.80, reinforcing the notion of significant investment value [10]. Growth Opportunities - The company is expected to benefit from a large unmet demand, with over 550 million diabetes patients and more than 800 million obesity patients globally, alongside a long treatment care cycle [7]. - Novo Nordisk's direct-to-consumer model through NovoCare, starting March 5, 2025, will offer Wegovy at a promotional price of $499 per month, enhancing its market reach [4][5]. Stock Performance and Outlook - The stock price stabilized at $58 after a significant drop, with a potential upward trend despite facing resistance at $81 [13][16]. - Analysts suggest that the stock has significant upside potential, with a target price of $132.20 based on adjusted earnings per share projections for fiscal year 2027 [17].