美联储理事沃勒呐喊降息波及币圈 XBIT稳定币870亿生变

Core Viewpoint - The recent comments by Federal Reserve Governor Waller regarding potential interest rate cuts in July have significantly impacted the cryptocurrency market, revealing vulnerabilities in the $87 billion stablecoin sector amidst geopolitical tensions and market volatility [1][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices have dropped 1.8% this week, falling below the critical support level of $3,370, marking the largest decline in three weeks, despite ongoing geopolitical conflicts [1][3]. - Historical data indicates that gold typically sees a risk premium increase of 5.5% within 8-20 trading days following the outbreak of geopolitical crises, yet this time, gold has failed to perform as a safe haven asset [3][5]. - The total market capitalization of stablecoins has shrunk by $3.7 billion in a week, indicating a significant outflow of capital from these assets [8]. Group 2: Stablecoin Dynamics - The dominance of dollar-pegged stablecoins exceeds 90% of the market, with euro-pegged stablecoins accounting for less than 1%, mirroring the SWIFT system's dollar payment share [5]. - The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023 saw USDC's price plummet to $0.87, resulting in a 13% loss for a million holders, highlighting the fragility of stablecoins [3][5]. - The RWA (Real World Assets) market, valued at $15 billion, faces transparency issues regarding its underlying assets, raising concerns about potential defaults and rapid liquidations [5][8]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Implications - Waller's unexpected shift towards a dovish stance on interest rates has sparked controversy, conflicting with the FOMC's previous projections of no rate cuts until 2025 [6]. - The futures market reflects skepticism about imminent rate cuts, with only an 8% probability for July and 35% for September, indicating market doubts about Waller's assertions [6]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin's comments suggest that businesses are preparing to pass on tariff costs, which could exacerbate inflationary pressures and threaten the stability of dollar-pegged assets [6].