马斯克的下一个万亿赛道？瑞银详解Robotaxi商业模式

Core Insights - Investors are increasingly focused on Tesla's Robotaxi service following its launch in Austin, which currently operates with 10 vehicles and has a unified fare of $4.20 [1][3] - UBS estimates that if everything goes as planned, Tesla's Robotaxi network could expand to 2.3 million vehicles by 2040, generating annual revenue of $203 billion and contributing up to $86 billion in after-tax operating profit [1][3][17] - UBS has raised Tesla's target price from $190 to $215, valuing the Tesla Network business at $350 billion, despite maintaining a "sell" rating due to concerns about current valuation levels [1][17] Business Model and Revenue Potential - The Robotaxi fleet is projected to consist of 40% Tesla-owned vehicles and 60% contributed by individual owners or fleet companies, similar to an Airbnb model [5][11] - The average operational cost for Robotaxi is estimated at $0.86 per mile, with a potential gross margin exceeding 70% at a fare of $3 per mile [16][19] - By 2040, total annual revenue for the Tesla Network is expected to reach $203 billion, with $143 billion from the owned fleet and $60 billion from contributed vehicles [5][17] Competitive Advantage - Tesla's vertical integration, including in-house development of the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, vehicle manufacturing, and operational platform, distinguishes it from competitors like Waymo and Mobileye [11][18] - This integration allows Tesla to dynamically adjust supply through its platform, mitigating resource idling risks during peak and off-peak times [15][18] Financial Projections - Tesla Network is expected to remain unprofitable until 2027, but profitability is anticipated by 2030, with a projected after-tax operating profit of $8.6 billion by 2040 [17][18] - The contribution from the fleet segment is expected to have a profit margin of 92%, becoming a significant cash flow source for the company [17][18] Valuation Insights - UBS's valuation of the Tesla Network at $350 billion implies that this business accounts for approximately 31% of Tesla's current stock price of $321.87 [17][18] - The potential for Robotaxi to disrupt the industry is significant, but the realization of this potential is expected to take time due to various uncertainties [18]