重庆消费首次超越上海！大城市的“富贵病”，已经开始显现

Core Insights - Chongqing has surpassed Shanghai to become the city with the highest total retail sales of consumer goods in China for the first time, with a total of 538.54 billion yuan compared to Shanghai's 535.55 billion yuan [1][3] - The decline in consumption in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Beijing is attributed to high housing prices and a significant proportion of transient populations, which affects local consumption patterns [7][10] Group 1: Consumption Data - In the first four months of this year, Chongqing's retail sales grew by 4.4%, outperforming Guangzhou's 4% and Shenzhen's 3.7%, while Shanghai experienced a decline of 0.3% and Beijing a decline of 3.7% [7][8] - The top ten cities for consumer spending last year were Shanghai, Chongqing, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Suzhou, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Wuhan [6] Group 2: Factors Contributing to Chongqing's Success - Chongqing's large population base of 31.9 million in 2024 provides a significant advantage over other first-tier cities, which have populations around 20 million [3] - The lower housing prices in Chongqing compared to first-tier cities allow residents to allocate more disposable income to consumption rather than mortgage payments [3][14] Group 3: Challenges for First-tier Cities - The high proportion of transient populations in cities like Beijing and Shanghai leads to lower local consumption, as these individuals may not spend significantly in the cities where they work [9][11] - The decline in consumer confidence among millennials and Generation X in first-tier cities is linked to high housing prices, which can diminish their purchasing power and willingness to spend [16] Group 4: Future Outlook - Chongqing is actively promoting consumption through initiatives such as a new round of appliance upgrades and plans to enhance service consumption and new consumption cultivation, aiming for a retail sales growth rate of 5% this year [14] - The long-term solution for first-tier cities to overcome their "affluence disease" involves addressing housing prices to improve the attractiveness of these cities for both residents and transient populations [16]