日元“避险神话”破灭？一场空头完美风暴恐至！

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has not acted as a safe-haven currency despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with the USD/JPY rising over 1% and nearing the 148 mark, reaching a new low in nearly a month [1] - The better-than-expected Japanese PMI index has not provided relief for yen bulls, as traders have pushed back expectations for the Bank of Japan's next rate hike to Q1 2026 [3] - Concerns over the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on Japanese cars and a 24% reciprocal tariff on other imports may negatively impact the Japanese economy, further weakening the yen [3] Group 2 - Speculative positions remain heavily skewed towards a stronger yen, indicating a potential market shift as hedge funds may cover these positions [4] - A weaker yen typically supports the Japanese stock market by increasing the overseas revenue value of major exporters, but rising energy prices are sharply increasing manufacturing costs, potentially limiting this effect [4] - The rising oil prices not only worsen Japan's trade surplus but also deteriorate its trade conditions, fundamentally weakening the yen, with Citigroup analysts predicting a depreciation to 150 by September [4]