美股下半年怎么走？刚调完仓，把思考过程全摊开

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time, raising questions about the impact on the U.S. stock market in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Market Resilience and Economic Indicators - The market showed unexpected resilience following the tariff announcement in April, with the S&P 500 rebounding 15% from its April low, and the Nasdaq 100 recovering its year-to-date losses [4] - The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% in June, the lowest in 2023, providing a "safety net" for consumer spending, as historical data indicates that when unemployment is below 4%, the S&P consumer sector outperforms the market by 4% annually [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June was reported at 3.3%, slightly down from 3.5% in April, but the core PCE remains at 2.8%, indicating that inflation concerns persist [6] Group 2: Legislative Factors Impacting Corporate Earnings - The Senate has a 60% chance of passing a tax reduction bill, which could lower the corporate tax rate from 21% to 18%, potentially releasing $120 billion in cash flow based on last year's net profits [7] Group 3: Sector Allocation Strategies - Technology stocks are allocated 50% of the portfolio, with a focus on companies with actual AI computing capabilities, such as Nvidia and Microsoft, while avoiding speculative "AI concept stocks" [8] - Consumer stocks are allocated 30%, shifting focus from "essential" to "discretionary" spending, as evidenced by a 5.2% month-over-month growth in discretionary consumption in June [9] - Defense stocks are allocated 20%, capitalizing on government defense spending, particularly in satellite communication, which has shown historical outperformance following similar policy initiatives [10] Group 4: Risk Management Practices - A maximum position size of 15% per stock is established to mitigate risks, following a significant loss from a concentrated position in Apple during the tariff announcement [11] - Weekly "stress tests" are conducted to assess portfolio performance under extreme scenarios, leading to an increase in cash allocation from 5% to 10% [12] - Key policy dates are marked for monitoring, particularly regarding tariffs and tax votes, to stay informed on potential market-moving events [13]