【期货热点追踪】SC原油高开低走，是高点已现还是为后市的上涨蓄力？

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between the US and Iran, have significantly influenced oil prices, with potential for further volatility depending on supply disruptions [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Oil prices initially surged following US military actions against Iran, reaching a four-month high of 588.6 CNY per barrel before retreating as the "war premium" was largely absorbed [1]. - Analysts suggest that for oil prices to rise further, there must be substantial damage to supply, as OPEC+ has considerable idle capacity [1]. - If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices could spike to $120 per barrel, according to various financial institutions [2]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Outlook - Short-term demand for oil appears strong, particularly in North America due to the summer driving season, but long-term growth forecasts vary significantly among major energy agencies [3]. - The EIA predicts a global oil demand increase of 800,000 barrels per day for this year, while the IEA is more conservative at 720,000 barrels per day. In contrast, OPEC maintains a higher estimate of 1.3 million barrels per day [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Risks - The market sentiment is heavily influenced by the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for global oil transport, accounting for about one-third of maritime oil trade [2]. - Analysts from various institutions express concerns over the geopolitical risks, suggesting that if the Strait is blocked, oil prices could rise dramatically, with estimates reaching $120 per barrel [2][4]. - The current geopolitical tensions are expected to elevate market concerns over supply, leading to increased volatility in oil prices [5].