氧化铝：供需仍偏宽松&下方存支撑，期价或震荡为主

Group 1: Alumina Price Trends - Alumina prices experienced a slight rebound in May due to increased maintenance and production cuts among companies facing losses, alongside disruptions from revoked mining licenses in Guinea. However, the overall supply remained loose, leading to a decline in prices, with the alumina weighted index falling to around 2820 yuan/ton in mid-June, still above the absolute low of late April [1] - As of June, the average production cost of alumina hovered around 2840 yuan/ton, with cash costs at approximately 2630 yuan/ton. The average profitability for alumina companies remained positive, particularly in Henan and Shandong, where theoretical profits were around 300 yuan/ton [4] Group 2: Bauxite Supply and Production - In May, China's bauxite production reached 5.3664 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 8.96%. However, production in June may be impacted by environmental inspections [2] - Bauxite imports in May totaled 17.5145 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15.3% but a year-on-year increase of 29.4%. Cumulatively, imports for the first five months reached 85.176 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.1%, with Guinea accounting for approximately 77.8% of imports [2] Group 3: Electrolytic Aluminum Production - The production capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum in May slightly increased by 0.26% to 96.99%, with theoretical production profits reaching 4000 yuan/ton. The production remained stable, with no significant hindrances expected in the short term [5][6] - In May, the national electrolytic aluminum output was 3.828 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.97% and a year-on-year increase of 5% [5] Group 4: Inventory and Export Dynamics - As of June 20, the total inventory of alumina in delivery warehouses decreased to 90,295 tons, with registered warehouse receipts below 50,000 tons, indicating a low inventory level. The total alumina inventory at ports was around 3.84 million tons, with electrolytic aluminum plants holding approximately 2.826 million tons [7] - In May, China maintained a net export status for alumina, with exports of 20.78 thousand tons and imports of 6.75 thousand tons, resulting in a net export of 14.03 thousand tons, a decrease compared to April [7][8] Group 5: Market Outlook - The overall supply of bauxite is expected to remain loose in the short term, with stable bauxite prices. However, the lack of recovery from the Axis mine in Guinea and the impending rainy season may tighten supply in the medium term. Alumina production profits are recovering, and new projects are steadily increasing, although some production cuts are still present [8] - The demand for alumina remains stable due to good profitability in the downstream electrolytic aluminum sector, with high operating capacity. The low inventory levels may provide some support for prices, but the overall market is likely to experience fluctuations without significant upward movement [8]