NOV Stock Down 24% in a Year: Should Investors Hold or Move On?

Core Insights - NOV Inc. has experienced a 24% decline in stock price over the past year, raising concerns among investors about its future performance [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, NOV reported adjusted earnings of 19 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 25 cents, primarily due to margin challenges in the Energy Equipment division [3] - The company's net income for Q1 2025 was $73 million, a 39% decrease from $119 million in Q1 2024, attributed to lower equity income, unfavorable tax adjustments, and higher corporate costs [4] Risks and Challenges - Macroeconomic uncertainties, including trade wars and OPEC's decision to increase oil supply, are expected to negatively impact oilfield activity, particularly in North America, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia [5] - NOV anticipates $8-$10 million in unavoidable tariff expenses in Q2 2025, increasing to $15 million per quarter thereafter, which could erode margins despite mitigation efforts [6] - The Energy Products and Services segment saw a 2% revenue decline year over year, with EBITDA dropping by $29 million, indicating ongoing challenges in demand for drilling-related equipment [7] - NOV's exposure to North America's market volatility is significant, with 40% of revenues tied to this region, making it vulnerable to lower commodity prices and E&P spending cuts [8] Backlog and Order Trends - The Energy Equipment backlog grew 12% year over year to $4.41 billion, but management warned of potential delays in project awards due to macroeconomic uncertainty [9] - The book-to-bill ratio of 80 in Q1 suggests slowing order momentum, indicating potential future revenue challenges [10] Cost Pressures - Unallocated corporate costs rose significantly in Q1, contributing to the earnings miss, with expectations for these costs to remain elevated at $45-$55 million in Q2 [11] - Although Q1 free cash flow was positive at $51 million, it was below the $426 million returned to shareholders over the past 12 months, raising concerns about future cash-flow sustainability [12] Market Performance - NOV's stock has underperformed compared to the Zacks Oil and Energy sector and its peers, with a 24.4% decline over the past 12 months, while competitors like Kodiak Gas Services and Natural Gas Services Group saw gains of 35.6% and 43.6%, respectively [14]