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NOV Stock Down 24% in a Year: Should Investors Hold or Move On?
ZACKS· 2025-06-23 13:37
Core Insights - NOV Inc. has experienced a 24% decline in stock price over the past year, raising concerns among investors about its future performance [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, NOV reported adjusted earnings of 19 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 25 cents, primarily due to margin challenges in the Energy Equipment division [3] - The company's net income for Q1 2025 was $73 million, a 39% decrease from $119 million in Q1 2024, attributed to lower equity income, unfavorable tax adjustments, and higher corporate costs [4] Risks and Challenges - Macroeconomic uncertainties, including trade wars and OPEC's decision to increase oil supply, are expected to negatively impact oilfield activity, particularly in North America, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia [5] - NOV anticipates $8-$10 million in unavoidable tariff expenses in Q2 2025, increasing to $15 million per quarter thereafter, which could erode margins despite mitigation efforts [6] - The Energy Products and Services segment saw a 2% revenue decline year over year, with EBITDA dropping by $29 million, indicating ongoing challenges in demand for drilling-related equipment [7] - NOV's exposure to North America's market volatility is significant, with 40% of revenues tied to this region, making it vulnerable to lower commodity prices and E&P spending cuts [8] Backlog and Order Trends - The Energy Equipment backlog grew 12% year over year to $4.41 billion, but management warned of potential delays in project awards due to macroeconomic uncertainty [9] - The book-to-bill ratio of 80 in Q1 suggests slowing order momentum, indicating potential future revenue challenges [10] Cost Pressures - Unallocated corporate costs rose significantly in Q1, contributing to the earnings miss, with expectations for these costs to remain elevated at $45-$55 million in Q2 [11] - Although Q1 free cash flow was positive at $51 million, it was below the $426 million returned to shareholders over the past 12 months, raising concerns about future cash-flow sustainability [12] Market Performance - NOV's stock has underperformed compared to the Zacks Oil and Energy sector and its peers, with a 24.4% decline over the past 12 months, while competitors like Kodiak Gas Services and Natural Gas Services Group saw gains of 35.6% and 43.6%, respectively [14]
Why Is Nov Inc. (NOV) Up 2.5% Since Last Earnings Report?
ZACKS· 2025-05-28 16:35
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Nov Inc. (NOV) . Shares have added about 2.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Nov Inc. due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns ...
NOV(NOV) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-04-29 20:18
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, NOV reported revenues of $2.1 billion, a 2% decrease year over year, with net income of $73 million or $0.19 per fully diluted share [4][14] - Adjusted EBITDA was $252 million, representing a 5% increase, with EBITDA margins expanding by 80 basis points to 12% [5][14] - The company generated $135 million in cash from operations and $51 million in free cash flow, with a cash balance increase of $689 million over the last twelve months [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Energy Products and Services segment generated revenue of $992 million, a 2% decrease year over year, with EBITDA declining to $145 million or 14.6% of sales [16][18] - The Energy Equipment segment reported revenue of $1.15 billion, down 3% from the previous year, but EBITDA increased by $46 million to $165 million, resulting in a margin of 14.4% [21][24] - Capital equipment sales accounted for 57% of the Energy Equipment segment's revenues, with bookings for Q1 at $437 million, a 12% year-over-year increase [22][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenues decreased from 65% to 61% of total revenues, attributed to seasonal factors, but the international market is expected to grow as a share of the business [60] - North American activity is anticipated to decline in the double-digit range, while international markets, particularly in unconventional resources, are expected to perform better [60][68] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on operational efficiencies and careful cost management in light of emerging macroeconomic headwinds [6][9] - NOV is well-positioned for long-term growth, emphasizing the importance of deepwater and international shale production as future sources of incremental oil supply [11][41] - The company is actively diversifying supply chains to mitigate tariff impacts and is leveraging its U.S. manufacturing footprint to enhance competitiveness [30][39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding the geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, anticipating challenges in the second half of 2025 [29][41] - The outlook for offshore production remains robust, with expectations for more awards for FPSOs in 2025 compared to previous years [24][50] - Management highlighted the importance of technological advancements in improving drilling and production efficiencies, particularly in deepwater projects [45][46] Other Important Information - The company plans to pay a supplemental dividend of around $80 million, subject to Board approval, to align returns to 50% of excess free cash flow for 2024 [15] - NOV's backlog of capital equipment and projects has grown steadily, with margins improving significantly over the past four years [8][9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on 2025 margins relative to 2024 - Management indicated that EBITDA margins are expected to be flattish from the first half to the second half of 2025, with modest growth anticipated [56] Question: International revenues decrease - Management acknowledged a seasonal pullback but expects international revenues to grow as a share of the business going forward [60] Question: Capital equipment order activity - Management noted strong confidence in the offshore deepwater market, with potential FPSO awards in 2025, despite some macroeconomic uncertainties [66][68] Question: Tariff mitigation efforts and CapEx - Most mitigation plans do not require significant CapEx, focusing instead on operational efficiency and vendor collaboration [80] Question: M&A opportunities in the current economic environment - Management remains open to opportunistic M&A but emphasized the need for deals to make industrial sense and provide high returns [86][89]
NOV(NOV) - 2025 Q1 - Quarterly Report
2025-04-29 17:25
UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION (Mark one) ☒ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 FOR THE QUARTERLY PERIOD ENDED MARCH 31, 2025 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 Commission File Number 1-12317 NOV INC. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-Q Delaware 76-0475815 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) (IRS Employ ...
NOV(NOV) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-04-29 15:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, NOV reported revenues of $2.1 billion, a net income of $73 million, and an EBITDA of $252 million, representing a margin increase of 80 basis points year on year [5][6][15] - Consolidated revenue decreased by 2% year on year, while adjusted EBITDA increased by 5%, marking the fourteenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year EBITDA margin improvement [15][18] - Operating cash flow was strong, generating $135 million in cash from operations and $51 million in free cash flow after capital expenditures of $84 million [16][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Energy Products and Services segment generated revenue of $992 million, a 2% decrease year on year, with EBITDA declining to $145 million or 14.6% of sales [18][19] - The Energy Equipment segment reported revenue of $1.15 billion, down 3% year on year, but EBITDA increased by $46 million to $165 million, resulting in a margin of 14.4% [22][24] - Capital equipment sales accounted for 57% of the Energy Equipment segment's revenues, with bookings for Q1 at $437 million, a 12% year-over-year increase [23][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenues decreased from 65% to 61% of total revenues, attributed to seasonal pullbacks, but the international market is expected to grow as a share of the business going forward [59][60] - North American activity is anticipated to decline in the double-digit range, while international markets, particularly in unconventional resources, are expected to perform better [60][70] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on operational efficiencies and cost management in light of emerging macroeconomic headwinds, including a potential trade war and lower oilfield activity [8][10] - NOV is well-positioned for long-term growth, emphasizing the importance of deepwater and international shale production as future sources of incremental oil supply [12][41] - The company is actively working to mitigate tariff impacts by diversifying supply chains and leveraging its U.S. manufacturing footprint [29][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding the geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, indicating that while there are potential upsides, the outlook remains skewed to the downside [29][41] - The company expects modest growth in Q2 2025, with consolidated revenue anticipated to decline by 1% to 4% compared to the same period in 2024 [28][60] - Management highlighted the resilience of international and offshore customers, who continue to press ahead with strategic plans despite market uncertainties [9][10] Other Important Information - The backlog of capital equipment and projects has grown steadily over the past four years, with margins improving significantly [10][22] - The company plans to pay a supplemental dividend of around $80 million, subject to board approval, to align returns to 50% of excess free cash flow for 2024 [17][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on 2025 margins relative to 2024 - Management indicated that EBITDA margins are expected to be flattish from the first half to the second half of 2025, with modest growth anticipated [56][58] Question: International revenues and future growth - Management confirmed that international revenues are expected to grow as a share of the business, driven by resilience in unconventional shale and deepwater offshore activity [59][60] Question: Capital equipment order activity - Management noted that while there is uncertainty, confidence in the deepwater offshore market remains strong, with potential FPSO awards expected in 2025 [68][69] Question: Exposure to the flexibles market and Petrobras agreement - Management expressed optimism about the flexibles market and highlighted a new agreement with Petrobras to address stress corrosion issues, which could significantly benefit the business [74][75] Question: Tariff mitigation efforts and CapEx - Management clarified that most tariff mitigation efforts do not require significant CapEx, focusing instead on operational efficiency improvements [80][81] Question: M&A opportunities in the current economic environment - Management stated that while there may be opportunities due to the economic soft patch, they remain cautious about pursuing M&A unless it aligns with their strategic goals [88][90]
NOV(NOV) - 2025 Q1 - Quarterly Results
2025-04-29 13:00
Exhibit 99.1 NEWS Contact: Amie D'Ambrosio (713) 375-3826 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE NOV REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2025 RESULTS Energy Products and Services generated revenues of $992 million in the first quarter of 2025, a decrease of two percent from the first quarter of 2024. Operating profit decreased $38 million from the prior year to $83 million, or 8.4 percent of sales, and included $5 million in Other Items. Adjusted EBITDA decreased $29 million from the prior year to $145 million, or 14.6 percent of sales. ...
NOV's Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Decrease Y/Y
ZACKS· 2025-04-29 11:35
NOV Inc. (NOV) reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 19 cents per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 25 cents. The bottom line decreased from the year-ago quarter’s 30 cents. This underperformance can be attributed to margin pressures on projects within its Energy Equipment segment. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.) The oil and gas equipment and services company’s total revenues of $2.1 billion marginally beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate b ...
Nov Inc. (NOV) Lags Q1 Earnings Estimates
ZACKS· 2025-04-28 23:55
分组1 - Nov Inc. reported quarterly earnings of $0.19 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.25 per share, and down from $0.30 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -24% [1] - The company posted revenues of $2.1 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.21%, but down from year-ago revenues of $2.16 billion [2] - Over the last four quarters, Nov Inc. has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped consensus revenue estimates three times [2] 分组2 - The stock has lost about 15.6% since the beginning of the year, compared to the S&P 500's decline of -6.1% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.33 on $2.17 billion in revenues, and $1.36 on $8.79 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Oil and Gas - Mechanical and Equipment is currently in the bottom 8% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for the sector [8]
Factors You Need to Know Ahead of NOV's Q1 Earnings Release
ZACKS· 2025-04-23 10:35
NOV Inc. (NOV) is set to release first-quarter 2025 results on April 28, 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 25 cents per share and the same for revenues is pinned at $2.10 billion.Let us delve into the factors that are likely to have influenced the oilfield service provider’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. But first, it is worth taking a look at NOV’s performance in the last reported quarter.Highlights of NOV’s Q4 Earnings & Surprise HistoryIn the last reported quarter, ...
Earnings Preview: Nov Inc. (NOV) Q1 Earnings Expected to Decline
ZACKS· 2025-04-21 15:06
Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Nov Inc. due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Nov Inc. is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.25 per share, reflecting a -16.7% change year-over-year, with revenues projected at $2.1 billion, down 2.6% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2.09% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -4%, complicating predictions for an earnings beat [10][11]. - A positive Earnings ESP is generally a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3, which increases the likelihood of a positive surprise [8]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Nov Inc. exceeded expectations by delivering earnings of $0.41 per share against an expected $0.35, resulting in a surprise of +17.14% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13]. Market Reaction Considerations - An earnings beat or miss alone may not dictate stock movement, as other factors can influence investor sentiment [14]. - Despite not appearing as a compelling earnings-beat candidate, other factors should be considered when evaluating the stock ahead of its earnings release [16].