中东冲突升级在即，原油空头为何依然淡定？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, the oil market bears are maintaining their positions, believing that the situation will not significantly impact the crude oil market [1][3] - On June 21, U.S. President Trump announced via social media that the U.S. had completed attacks on three Iranian nuclear facilities, which could have led to market volatility, but the market remains relatively optimistic about the conflict not worsening [1] - Oil prices initially surged over 6%, equivalent to a 2.5 standard deviation increase, but quickly retreated to a level just under 0.5% above Friday's close, indicating that bears have not engaged in large-scale position liquidation [1] Group 2 - Despite increased geopolitical risks, futures positioning data shows that the bearish stance in the oil market remains firm, with speculators continuing to increase short positions throughout the year [3] - The KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Money ETF continues to hold short positions in oil and gas futures, even as the probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 has significantly increased [3] - The market generally believes that Iran will not ultimately block the Strait of Hormuz, as the damage to other oil-importing countries would likely outweigh the impact on the U.S., which is a net exporter of oil [3]