如果美国36万亿美债还不上了，谁会哭得最大声？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Japan's significant holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and the implications of its financial strategy amidst rising U.S. debt and economic challenges, contrasting it with China's approach to reducing its U.S. bond holdings [1][3][5]. Group 1: Japan's Position - Japan holds $1.06 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, making it the largest foreign holder, while China has reduced its holdings to over $700 billion [3]. - From 2022 to 2024, Japan has sold approximately $200 billion in U.S. bonds, indicating a lack of confidence in U.S. fiscal stability and its own financial situation [5]. - Japan's fiscal deficit and demographic challenges, such as a declining birth rate, exacerbate its economic vulnerabilities while it continues to purchase U.S. debt [5][9]. Group 2: U.S. Debt Dynamics - The U.S. national debt exceeds $36 trillion, with interest payments surpassing $1 trillion annually, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [5]. - The U.S. Treasury continues to issue new debt, relying on foreign holders like Japan to finance its obligations, creating a cycle of dependency [5][11]. - The article highlights the irony of Japan's situation, where it must continue to buy U.S. bonds despite recognizing the risks involved [9][11]. Group 3: China's Strategy - China is actively reducing its U.S. bond holdings and reallocating its foreign reserves towards gold, European bonds, and emerging market assets, signaling a strategic shift away from U.S. debt [7]. - This shift indicates China's desire to distance itself from U.S. financial markets, contrasting with Japan's continued reliance on U.S. bonds [7][13]. - The article suggests that if a crisis were to occur in U.S. debt markets, China may not be as adversely affected as Japan, which is more tightly bound to U.S. financial stability [13].